What rare coins will fare best?
 

Just finished reading Richard Maybury's latest 'Early Warning Report'. His is by far my favorite newsletter, taking a very macro view of world trends.
Anyway Richard is again highlighting the potential of numismatics. As usual he comes to it from a less than usual vantage point - namely that China is on the crest of the World's largest economic shakeout , probably sometime following the Games in Beijing and this will result in an acceleration of the plunge in the dollar. When gold surpasses it's previous highs of ~850/oz it will draw serious attention to the PM's and he believes that numismatics will hitch a ride from this and far surpass bullion.
Some paraphrased outtakes :

-I think that for every dollar earned in PM bullion coins , you could earn five times as much in certified numi's
-they will be like the dotcom stocks of the late 90's...totally insane
-numi coins may be the cheapest non-dollar asset there is currently - the biggest laggards and therefore possibly the best bargains with the most potential

Big praise from a guy who's not usually given to hyperbole. Lest you think he's a collector though , he's not , He looks at it with the cold cynical eye of an investor.

- I don't think they are worth big money or make any more sense as investments than other art forms- even uses the analogy that they are a 'glittery gimmick' , but one that will attract crowds ,like a shiny lure in a school of fish
-but currency and other crises will bring them into the public's attention and make them hot
-won't take much money from new buyers to make prices go wild

Of course he also cautions that this is speculation and to be able to afford tolose the money etc.

So my question is - from an INVESTMENT standpoint, not a collector's or even appreciater's (is that a word?)one, what do you all think are the best coins to invest in (speculate in for investment purposes I think is a better way of saying it perhaps). The ones that will demand the highest prices from the hedge fund managers and lumpen masses if and when they ever come charging in like a bull in a china shop?
What grades do you think will fare best? etc. Sets? Proofs? Commemoratives?
I believe buying quality will probably pay off. (See this excerpt and link)

"...as the experience of Louis Eliasberg, John Pittman, and others demonstrates, higher quality coins, although they cost more to purchase, appreciate at a higher rate and therefore produce higher return on investment. Eliasberg, who constantly sought to own the highest graded specimen of any issue, calculated that he had an annualized return of 119% - about 10 times the return on the CU3000 Index! Read More 10."

Obviously if we used an art analogy , not many of us can afford a Picasso to flip to some money shuffler in 10 years , for 100 times what we paid for it, - so uber-rare specimens - even though I guess they may be the best performers , may not be practical - but what are the best bets from this angle? Sometime I know it's hard to forego buying a dozen coins in favor of a single one. What do you think? Anyone think there's a happy medium? A good strategy they belive in?
Appreciate all opinions.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

First i would like to thank you for posting this thread its a blast. My side of what gold coin's to buy, gold coins (those that carry a grading of Mint State (MS) 63 or higher from the grading agencies PCGS or NGC) are 'only' up 72%. These coins peaked in value in 1989. They subsequently fell by 88%, bottoming in 2001. There is still 100% upside on the table here 2007, and your downside is limited (since you're close to meltdown value). I prefer the least expensive of these with the highest gold content, like the $20 Saint Gaudens, these will be my next big buy in gold coin's.:D

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/st_gaudens.html

http://www.amergold.com/vault/20Sain...leEagles.shtml

Have a look on ebay
http://stores.ebay.com/Stuppler-and-...2QQsclZ0QQtZkm

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Probably $20 US gold. It trades for a relatively small premium over spot (now), but in a situation where gold goes on a laser-propelled rocket to outer space, the premium will go with the spot value.

You might also try Roman/Byzantine gold. If you can snag a solidus for under $500, you are in good shape. The coin has about .15 oz of pure gold.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

I dont foresee a big boom in numis. it's basically a collectors item. collection goes in fads, explosions of interest based on external events that are beyond the core of the hobbyists and vendors. like a movie popularizes a collecting activity or something.

right now I would even add that due to quarter series, we are in a state of heightened coin collection awareness due to the massive marketing punch of the US Mint. If anything I would expect coin collecting to possible dive a bit.

I have seen an article about how the prices of numi morgans are stagnant, there are some huge populations of morgans out there and they have been collected so long that interest wanes. my corner store guy said he is "choking" on them and has a huge basket of decent ones including pre 21s for fifteen each. I havent bothered to finger though it because I just sold off some of my own and didnt want to miss the opportunity to look at more interesting stuff.

as for gold, lets be realistic. americans do not have a ton of disposable income. the rich bastards also do not care much for something unsexy like this. the young guys and girls making money in global management type jobs all want fancy cars and new clothes. collecting is mostly a man's pursuit anyways, and an older man's interest overall. women like jewelry but coins lack relevance for the average woman.

I am in this because I am sick over it, I really dig it, I dont give a crap. I almost want people to lose interest so prices will tank and I can hoard more. LOL

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

I'm hoping to make a killing on nickels and pennys after they start making them out of plastic. :emotions16: I personally think all the fancy graded stuff will lose value not gain value. Kind of like all the morgans and libertys that got melted down in the big Hunt Brothers bubble, I think graded stuff won't be worth anything more than everything else. Maybe wealthy collectors will still be willing to pay the premium, but I'm not willing to bet on it.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

The single most important thing to remember about numismatic "investing" is this.......

"98+ Percent of 'rare' coins ARE NOT RARE."

If you want to invest in truly RARE coins, then you first need to take the time to LEARN WHAT IS RARE. Once you get over that initial hurdle, you will be way ahead of the pack. Look specifically at early U.S. type coins from 1793 through the mid 1800s in the highest grades that you can afford. Stay away from the esoteric stuff like foreign or ancient coins unless you just have an interest for collecting sake. Gold type may be "flashy", but there is nothing at all rare about the vast majority of "old" eagles or double eagles. Those particular coins are available in MASS QUANTITIES at any given time, especially so in "slabbed" MS60 through MS63 grades. If they catch your fancy, shoot for the highest grades you can afford, preferably MS66 through MS68 grades as they will always have a demand to collectors. Remember too that THE COLLECTOR is the "end user" of all such material, not the investor or speculator. That misconception was what crashed the numismatic markets after the 1989 peak, too much speculation and price appreciation to the point that the end user, the collector, was priced right out of the market or simply refused to keep playing the appreciation game. It was simply one of those bubbles that had to eventually pop. And never, but never rely on a piece of plastic or a graders opinion to tell you what a coin grades or what it is worth. If you don't have the initiative to learn grading on your own without having to have someone else hold your hand or lead you around by the nose, you really have no business in numismatics in the first place. Inexperienced ignorance almost always leads to an expensive education........

"When the man with experience meets the man with money, the man with the experience gets the money and the man with the money gets the experience."

What "rare" coins will fare best is anyone's guess, as different coins go through different stages of popularity and disinterest. Copper, silver, gold, bust type, seated type, colonial, from half cents to territorial gold, they all have their day in the sun. But in general, only the truly RARE COINS hold a steady and consistent chance of appreciation while others go through "fads" from time to time, and back again.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

"Rare coins" which possess the majority of their "market value" in numismatic interest and appeal are SURE LOSERS when the economy tanks.

I have some MS-61 & MS-62 common date Saints & Libertys. I have them because they're "pretty," and they are MOSTLY "bullion value."

I highly recommend AGAINST numismatic-mostly coins (MS-64 and up, rare dates and marks). UNLOAD them now while they retain most of their collector value. Then buy BULLION.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Plastic?!?

ELECTRONS!

"With your new Freedom FastCard, you can buy anything, anywhere. No more cash or checks needed. Ease, convenience, security. And it's the law!"

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Indeed, NEVER EVER listen to a broker about how "rare" his wares are. KNOW what you are buying and how much it is truly worth if you decide to go numismatic. They're called "Con Artists" because they win your confidence that they're giving you a good deal.

Coins like Carson City silver or Dahlonega gold are, in general, truly "rare" - especially in MS condition.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

I pretty much feel the same way. I like to buy older coins because they have a history to them. And I like the idea of owning a little piece of history. But I don't have to pay out the ass to do it. Right now, the only graded numis gold coin I own is an 1893 $10 liberty. It's slabbed by PCGS and graded MS-61. That's good enough for me. It's a beautiful coin, it has history, it's certified, and I didn't pay that much of a premium for it. I'm sure I'll eventually buy more similar gold coins just for variety, but I won't touch anything over MS-62. Paying that much more money for one less scratch or blemish simply doesn't appeal to me. I think it's more fun to own a coin that you know has been passed around a few more times. It lets the imagination run for a bit.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Buying ungraded $20 gold pieces...Liberty and Saints....for less than 5% over spot...seems like a decent deal to me... tough to find at this price... I run ads on craigslist and turfed up a few. I am not sure this is really much of a "numismatic play"....but I like the old gold pieces...and if gold goes up..these will go up along with the price of gold. I also subscribe to Early Warning Report.......and saw the writeup.

The good ole days...5 years ago or so...when you could buy Saints and Liberty $20 gold pieces for under $450....under $400 at one point. I am a novice at this....but I would say that every coin I have ever purchased in the "old coin" category is in profit position....so I guess I got lucky by buying at the right time. Timing is everything. I would have done about the same buying straight bullion....which I did. I did better buying gold stocks....way better...but I am trying to roll some of the profits on these into the low premium ungraded Liberties and Gaudens...plus more bullion. I have a long time horizon.

I also....got lucky at one point. There is a gold/stamp coin store near me...they ironically dropped the coin business and only do stamps. Some guy was coming in every week selling a bunch of ungraded gold coins...Indian Heads, Gaudens, pretty much all denomination of gold coins. The coin guy who worked there (since retired) ...his boss did not like holding a bunch of coins (idiot). So...he would call me immediately and sell them to me. I actually sent them in to be graded....and the results were decent. Got one MS65 Gaudens. Mostly low MS grades...and I paid prices based on lower grades. This was pure luck. I had my magnifying glass and tried to check them out...but I got very lucky. Only one was returned as cleaned and not graded at all. This was about 5 years ago....which is why the opportunity existed at all - there was 0 interest in this market....the owner hated gold...and just wanted his guy to pay as little as possible and have me come in the same day a small % profit. Crazy...seems unreal to me based on prices I have seen today. I tried going to about 7 other coin stores in the area....they all wanted full retail...and they would flat out tell me: any coin we have that is gradeable...we will send it in ourself. My guy retired in 2003 or 2004...and his owner got out of coins. stamps only. Bad timing on his part!!

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Oh, please, please, PLEASE everyone be careful buying ungraded Saints or Libertys!

I've seen a very nice looking "1933" Saint...of course, it was a FAKE.

I believe there are as many (ungraded) fake Saints floating around as there are fake Pandas.


Real on left, fake on right:

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Not only does the fake look like a cheap fake - anyone with half a brains knows the 1933 was deemed illegal to own and only a couple exist......

But, like WC Fields said - "Never give a sucker an even break!" :D

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Don't buy anything with a PCGS "First Strike" or NGC "Early Release" label and expect it to gain numismatic value.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Do you mean fake or counterfeit? Difference being counterfeits are made of the correct weight of the correct metal and fakes made from base metal.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Cents have performed well over the past few years. Key dates such as 1909S VDB, 1914D, and 1931S have more than doubled in price in just the past three years. It's hard to predict their ceiling though. I mean how much is a collector willing to pay for a copper coin with a face value of one cent just to fill a hole in their Whitman folder? For this reason, I like half cents, which based on their low mintages, seem relatively undervalued.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

To answer the original question:

1 - $20 Saints PCGS or NGC only - in the jewel category = MS64 up.

2 - $20 Saints PCGS or NGC only - in less than jewel state = MS63 down

Cheap now in bulk at:

http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/


Just a way to buy in bulk at a relatively low price. DYODD.

Please.

Raw is fun but you will get burned a little sending them in. Trust me on this X 8.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Thanks for replies. My intent was not to marginalize or bastardize the pursuit of 'collecting'. Just to note that there is no reason numismatics cannot see a mania along the lines of art and other collectible assets.

I do collect , though in a small and probably naive manner. I'm learning all the time. And I do have certain coins I am quite attached to and intrigued by, and perhaps may never part with (okay never is a big word!).
That said, I'm an avid fisherman too , and in April after a rain, I have no problem bumping nymphs or even (gasp) dunking a garden worm , into a swollen stream in pursuit of trout. The "purists" , the ones who would never deign to do anything but match a hatch and cast dries , are passing up a lot of fun and profit (in the form of tasty trout) during some of the best fishing in the East at these times. In other words I don't ever see myself becoming a purist and forgoing the chance to profit from the current conditions. Coins or fish.
If there is going to be a mania, I'd like to participate. The purists in the stock market , the value and dividend investors , probably would never have touched tech stocks with a ten foot pole in 1996, and subsequently missed one of the greatest times of easy money in the history of their profession for several years. Yes , they also missed the carnage in most cases. But I don't foresee myself chasing numismatics if and when there are 3 hedge funds a week forming to invest specifically in them and they make the cover of Time magazine with a caption declaring them the greatest investment of all time. Rather I'll be selling then. I think we've a long long way to go before PM's in general and numismatics in particular , garner that kind of interest and premium. Like someone said - cycles come and go. Some cycles become mania.
Also , while my intent is to learn more about truly RARE coins , because I do see the most potential here , and they are becoming much more interesting to me to see and learn about, remember that in the case of anything collectible , and especially in times of mania , rare becomes a relative term. If there are 40,000 slabbed coins of a certain issue and grade , and 400,000 collectors, it's quite a different story than if there are 4 million investors , or even a few hundred new collectors/investors with very deep pockets.
There will always be many with with 8 and 9 digit net worths , and even a few of these individuals , never mind hedge funds or investment banks getting involved , will have a serious effect on the numismatic landscape , for better or worse.

Gorilla, Gaudens are one of the few Gold coins I own. My brother is an active eBay dealer and collector and sees a lot of interest in these always. For some reason he believes the best potential for appreciation relative to value are in the MS63 grades for these and most coins. this is based on his calculations though and I don't know how he does that , but I'm going to coin show with him in October and hope to learn much and get some introductions etc.

AuNugget , thanks. I have nothing anywhere near as old as 1790's. What coins specifically do you like best? Are there any books/resources you have found most useful for learning about the older rarer coin issues? Thanks.

Pinnacle - great story , how come I never find bargains like this?:rant::D

I think bargains will become harder and harder to find over time too , and it will become easier and easier to find ridiculous premiums and unrealistic euphoria. Then I'll happily part with some of my (in retrospect!)- bargain purchases.
That's the plan anywho!
Thanks again all, please recommend specific favorites if you have one (unless you don't want competition of course , then you can be vague:wink:, and/or books and/or resources you have found to most useful.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

do you have an attribution for that or it just folk wisdom?

thats the best aphorism I have heard in a long time, thanks!

good numi advice too

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

historystudent and aunuggets:

Your stances are correct. I would not encourage anyone to buy coins with the hopes of getting them graded. I just got lucky once..... I have had alot of losers in my 18 years of investing....I have posted on here in past how I was fleeced a few years ago on an oil well deal. It was an expensive education...but I did learn something from it! I learned more from the losers than from the winners.

Going a little off topic here....but I see people in the news who were fleeced out of smaller amounts of money by some mortgage scumbag type....alot of them appear to be headed to foreclosure anyway.... I guess if you are in the business of fleecing people...do oil investment or gold or something...dont fleece people on their houses. The oil crook who stole money form about 150 investors to the tune of a few million $$...he is still walking free....never made the news..and it was a scam from the get go. His wife is a lawyer and her law firm defends him....and he and his wife have totally seperate assets.

Back on topic....I carry around a coin that I own that is very comparable to what I am buying...and hold it up next to the coins I am buying. I have had no fakes yet...... I did have someone who was trying to sell one of those replica st. gaudens.....the seller seemed clueless.....met me at a bank for the transaction....I told him...uh....this is a tin replica they made....not a real gold coin....it was so obvious....I waited around the bank for about 20 minutes in the lounge chairs/tv area....until he was long gone. Thought it might have been a setup.....but in further review....I think the guys was just that dumb and clueless. I had their place of employment from their emails...their address and working cell phone numbers...and the guy did seem a little embarrassed...said he inherited it and it seemed to good to be true...he sheepishly took off....I do not think it was a robbery attempt or attempt to pass a fake...but I could be wrong. I think they were just completely clueless as to what a gold coin was!! But..maybe not...it was a few years ago... They never knew who I was or where I live.....

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Yes, indeed...

You and I know they're fake, but will the average Joe? I just want people to be conscious of what a REAL one looks like, and, considering the state of knowledge of history in America, the illegality of that date is trivia known by not all that many.

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Either. A very good counterfeit could fool a well-educated collector. A fake will not.

But a fake could fool a newbie gold bug enamored with how pretty it is...and how much of a "good deal"..."just got this one in, I'm using it as a loss leader for my retail sales...I'll let it go for $25 under spot..."

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Is this personal observation or documented in some way? I am not trying to be a smart-ass. Considering Saints have existed for a long time, I wouldn't be surprised, though the technology to efficiently fake or counterfeit such has become more readily available only in the last couple decades.

I'd also presume most faux Saints come from China?

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

As per the original question... I like small denomination coins (25c or less) close to or at the highest grade level. I also like key dates such as the 1909 S-VDB and the 1916 D Mercury. If you are buying for investment, you have to seriously consider the demand potential for the coins you buy. Coins that have attained a following such as the two I mention are nearly always in demand. Coins at the highest grade will almost always be in demand as well, the pool of discerning collectors will always seek these coins in an attempt to put together the absolute finest sets.

This is one from my collection. It's an affordable coin that just about anyone could buy. The price differential between an MS-63 and an MS-65 has already become a factor of about 10. These are the types of coins that I seek, still affordable yet clearly showing the exponential price curve in the higher grade levels, which should be a good indicator of future price moves.

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y38...9/IMG_1039.jpg

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

Just buy those that carry a grading of Mint State (MS) 63 or higher from the grading agencies :D

Re: What rare coins will fare best?
 

NONE

Rare Coins in a tanking market will decline since the bullion value is the draw, a $1200 1909 VDB S could drop and probably will since disposable income drops in a crisis market!

CAVEAT EMPTOR

Let the Buyer Beware


Coins are seriously collected ba a few, anybody hawking coins as an investment vehicle in bad times must have a surplus inventory to unload on the rubes.